CDCar Deal Alert

Deal Intelligence

Understand the deal, not just the listing.

Car Deal Alert compares asking prices with the last observed asking prices of similar listings we tracked until they were marked sold, plus listing behaviour and how quickly similar cars leave the market, to help you understand value, timing and negotiating leverage.

The four signals

🔥 Deal Score

Is the asking price good value?

How attractive the asking price looks compared with our Estimated Market Value for similar cars.

What we look at

  • Asking price versus Estimated Market Value
  • How the price compares with other similar cars listed now
  • Whether enough comparable listings exist to score at all

What it means

  • Compares the asking price with an Estimated Market Value built from the last asking prices of similar cars we tracked until they were marked sold.
  • Also considers how the price sits among similar cars still listed.
  • Higher scores generally mean a more attractive asking price versus the market.

What it does not mean

  • It is not a guarantee the car is mechanically sound or correctly described.
  • It is not a formal valuation or appraisal.
  • It measures apparent price attractiveness, not resale profit or guaranteed savings.

⚡ Urgency Score

How quickly might I need to act?

How quickly you may need to act based on how fast similar cars sell, how fresh the listing is and how attractive the deal looks.

What we look at

  • How quickly similar cars typically sell
  • How recently this listing appeared
  • How attractive the Deal Score looks
  • Explicit urgent-sale wording when the seller mentions a deadline

What it means

  • Highlights listings that may disappear sooner when similar cars sell quickly.
  • Fresh, attractive listings often score higher.

What it does not mean

  • It is not simply how many days the ad has been live.
  • A high urgency score alone does not mean the price is a bargain.

🤝 Negotiation Score

Could there be room to negotiate?

How much negotiating leverage the listing appears to offer based on time on market, price changes, market position and seller behaviour.

What we look at

  • How long the vehicle has been listed relative to similar cars
  • Previous price reductions and how large they were
  • Asking price relative to Estimated Market Value
  • Explicit seller motivation or “negotiable” wording when available

What it means

  • Flags signals that an offer may be worthwhile — for example a long listing or price drops.
  • A high score can sit alongside a low Deal Score (priced high today, but possibly flexible).

What it does not mean

  • It does not mean the seller will accept a lower offer.
  • It does not replace your own negotiation judgement or inspection.

📊 Confidence

How much evidence supports the analysis?

How much comparable sold-listing evidence supports our price analysis.

What we look at

  • How many comparable sold vehicles underpin the estimate
  • Whether kilometre information is available to narrow the comparison

What it means

  • More comparable sold cars generally means a more reliable market comparison.
  • We show confidence as labels (Very high, High, Moderate, Low, Insufficient).

What it does not mean

  • Confidence is not a probability that the deal will work out.
  • A Confidence label is not a percentage chance of accuracy — do not read it like a forecast percentage.

Estimated Market Value

Our estimate of the market price for similar vehicles, based on the last asking prices of comparable listings we tracked until they were marked sold. These are last observed asking prices, not verified sale prices.

Where enough data exists we prefer:

  1. 1

    Similar year and kilometres

    Same make/model, about ±2 years and ±50,000 km (needs at least 3 comparable sold listings).

  2. 2

    Similar kilometres, slightly broader age

    Same make/model with similar kilometres, allowing a slightly broader age range when the closest age-and-km match is thin (needs at least 3).

  3. 3

    Similar kilometres

    Same make/model within about ±50,000 km (needs at least 3).

  4. 4

    Similar year

    Same make/model within about ±2 years (needs at least 3).

  5. 5

    Same model more broadly

    Same make/model sold listings more broadly (needs at least 2).

  • • EMV uses listings we observed until they were marked sold, at their last observed asking price. We do not see the final negotiated sale price.
  • • We first look for comparable sold listings close in both age and kilometres. If there aren’t enough, we gradually broaden the comparison while prioritising relevant age and mileage.
  • • Similar kilometres means about ±50,000 km. The closest age match uses about ±2 years.

Estimated Market Value is an estimate, not a vehicle valuation. Condition, trim, options, service history, accident history, location and incomplete listing information can make an individual vehicle worth more or less.

Deal Score guide

  • 🔥 90+

    Exceptional Value

    The asking price looks well below our Estimated Market Value for similar cars.

  • ✅ 75–89

    Very Good Value

    Clearly attractive versus our Estimated Market Value for similar cars.

  • 👍 60–74

    Good Value

    Better than a typical asking price for similar cars.

  • 📊 45–59

    Fair Price

    Roughly in line with our Estimated Market Value for similar cars.

  • ⚠️ 30–44

    Above Market

    Asking more than our Estimated Market Value for similar cars.

  • 🚨 0–29

    Significantly Overpriced

    Asking price looks well above our Estimated Market Value for similar cars.

  • ❓ —

    Insufficient Data

    Not enough comparable listings to judge the asking price fairly.

Exceptional Value starts at 90+. Scores near the top of the scale are uncommon — we emphasise evidence quality over chasing a perfect 100.

Urgency guide

  • 75+ — Act quickly

    Similar cars sell fast and/or this listing still looks hot.

  • 50–74 — Worth watching

    Timing matters, but it isn’t the highest urgency band.

  • Below 50 — No elevated urgency signal

    We usually don’t show an urgency badge in this range.

Dashboard Act Fast highlights good opportunities that also look likely to move quickly. A fast-selling but overpriced vehicle is not automatically recommended as Act Fast. Act Fast currently requires Urgency ≥75 and Deal Score ≥60.

Negotiation guide

  • 70+ — Strong leverage

    Multiple signals point to negotiating room.

  • 40–69 — Some leverage

    Some signals suggest an offer may be worthwhile.

  • Below 40 — Limited leverage signals

    We usually don’t highlight negotiation leverage in this range.

Negotiation Opportunities on the dashboard highlights the strongest subset. This is intentionally slightly stricter than the Strong leverage display label. Currently that means Negotiation Score ≥75.

A high Negotiation Score can coexist with a low Deal Score. For example, a car may be priced above market but have been listed much longer than normal and already reduced several times — weak deal at today’s asking price, but a stronger potential negotiating opportunity.

Confidence guide

How much comparable sold-listing evidence supports our price analysis.

  • Very high

    A large sample of comparable sold listings supports the price analysis.

  • High

    A solid sample of comparable sold listings supports the analysis.

  • Moderate

    Useful evidence, but the comparable sample is thinner.

  • Low

    Limited comparable sold listings — treat the market comparison carefully.

  • Insufficient

    Not enough comparable sold listings to judge confidently.

More comparable evidence gives us greater confidence in the market comparison. Confidence is shown as a label — not as a percentage chance that a deal will work out.

Why scores can disagree

High Deal + High Urgency

Good price, likely to move quickly.

Low Deal + High Negotiation

Not cheap yet, but there may be room to make an offer — for example a car listed much longer than normal and already reduced several times.

High Deal + Low Urgency

Attractive price, but the data doesn’t suggest you need to rush.

Each score answers a different question on purpose — value, timing, and leverage are not the same thing.

Risk flags

A low price isn’t automatically a good car. Risk flags highlight things worth checking before you buy.

  • • Unusually low price for the model or year
  • • Limited comparable sold-listing data
  • • Kilometres missing from the listing
  • • No RWC
  • • Sold as-is
  • • Disclosed mechanical or condition issues

Limitations

  • Estimates depend on available listing and sales data, which can be incomplete or incorrect.
  • Condition, specification, options, service history and location all affect what a car is worth.
  • Deal Intelligence supports research — it does not replace inspection, a PPSR check, a mechanical inspection or professional advice where appropriate.
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